Official Start Of Winter Doesn’t Look Like Winter
By PATRICK L. FANELLI
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12/21/2006 - Today may be the official start of winter, but it sure doesn’t look like it as all of Western New York braces for a brown Christmas.
Nowhere is the brown more evident than area ski slopes, where warm temperatures are making it difficult to even manufacture snow.
All slopes at Cockaigne Ski Center in Cherry Creek have been closed since Dec. 10 — only three days after the slopes opened for the season — when temperatures suddenly shot up, according to Linda Johnson, Cockaigne spokeswoman.
Peek’n Peak has eight slopes open, according to the resort’s Web site, though snowmaking weather is expected to return tonight.
Jane Eshbaugh, Holiday Valley Resort and Conference Center marketing director, said three lifts and four slopes were open as of Wednesday and 10 slopes should be open by the weekend, since nighttime temperatures have cooled enough in recent days to make snow. But the lack of snow everywhere else has had at least some impact on business.
‘‘Our customers are a combination of people who drive down for a day and people who come from a little farther away (and stay overnight),’’ Ms. Eshbaugh said. ‘‘When there’s no snow in their backyard, drive-downs tend to drop.’’
According to Ms. Johnson, the busiest time of year for ski resorts is the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day, and forecasts do have temperatures decreasing after Christmas Day.
‘‘It doesn’t take long to gear up and get right back into it,’’ she said. ‘‘We can sometimes do it in a day and a half. Skiers are resilient. The minute it’s all right, they will be right back out again.’’
Snow enthusiasts can blame the warm weather on strong winds in the jet stream that are keeping cold air from drifting south, says Bill Hibbert, a Buffalo meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
‘‘Normally, this time of year we would expect the jet stream dipping south from Canada, but this year instead it’s coming up from the southwest, putting us right at the boundary of milder air and colder air,’’ Hibbert said. ‘‘It’s very mild for us.’’
The month began with moderate snowfall and temperatures below normal for Western New York, but that changed Dec. 10. Since then, daily temperatures have averaged anywhere between 8 and 20 degrees warmer than normal, according to NOAA data.
But it’s not just the jet stream, Hibbert said — temperatures in the northeast are warmer than general because of El Nino, a periodical weather phenomenon that results from water fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean.
‘‘In a moderate to strong El Nino pattern — and we’re right on the edge of a moderate to strong El Nino pattern — it puts us in a fairly snow-free environment,’’ Hibbert said. ‘‘Snow that falls doesn’t stay.’’
El Nino’s impact varies, according to meteorologists. In Western New York, a weak El Nino pattern only results in warmer temperatures in November and December, while temperatures in January, February and March are typically colder than normal. But a moderate El Nino pattern results in colder temperatures just in February, and a strong El Nino pattern results in warmer temperatures for the entire winter.
According to Hibbert, there is a chance of precipitation Christmas night, and nighttime temperatures are dropping enough that it might snow then — but it won’t come in time for a white Christmas.
The odds are usually against a brown Christmas in Western New York. Buffalo residents are facing their first Christmas without even a trace of snow on the ground in nine years, and only their ninth brown Christmas in half a century, according to NOAA data.
Most snowmobile trails were scheduled to open Dec. 15, but temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s that day — a full 17 degrees above normal — left snowmobilers out of luck. The same went for cross country skiers, but Hibbert said there is at least a little good news for them since unseasonably warm temperatures have stopped Lake Erie from freezing over, which could mean more snow in the long run.
‘‘We still have an opportunity. The flip side is, because it is milder, there is no ice on Lake Erie. So any incursions of cold air across the lake give us the potential for lake effect snow late in the winter,’’ Hibbert said.
Nowhere is the brown more evident than area ski slopes, where warm temperatures are making it difficult to even manufacture snow.
All slopes at Cockaigne Ski Center in Cherry Creek have been closed since Dec. 10 — only three days after the slopes opened for the season — when temperatures suddenly shot up, according to Linda Johnson, Cockaigne spokeswoman.
Peek’n Peak has eight slopes open, according to the resort’s Web site, though snowmaking weather is expected to return tonight.
Jane Eshbaugh, Holiday Valley Resort and Conference Center marketing director, said three lifts and four slopes were open as of Wednesday and 10 slopes should be open by the weekend, since nighttime temperatures have cooled enough in recent days to make snow. But the lack of snow everywhere else has had at least some impact on business.
‘‘Our customers are a combination of people who drive down for a day and people who come from a little farther away (and stay overnight),’’ Ms. Eshbaugh said. ‘‘When there’s no snow in their backyard, drive-downs tend to drop.’’
According to Ms. Johnson, the busiest time of year for ski resorts is the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day, and forecasts do have temperatures decreasing after Christmas Day.
‘‘It doesn’t take long to gear up and get right back into it,’’ she said. ‘‘We can sometimes do it in a day and a half. Skiers are resilient. The minute it’s all right, they will be right back out again.’’
Snow enthusiasts can blame the warm weather on strong winds in the jet stream that are keeping cold air from drifting south, says Bill Hibbert, a Buffalo meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
‘‘Normally, this time of year we would expect the jet stream dipping south from Canada, but this year instead it’s coming up from the southwest, putting us right at the boundary of milder air and colder air,’’ Hibbert said. ‘‘It’s very mild for us.’’
The month began with moderate snowfall and temperatures below normal for Western New York, but that changed Dec. 10. Since then, daily temperatures have averaged anywhere between 8 and 20 degrees warmer than normal, according to NOAA data.
But it’s not just the jet stream, Hibbert said — temperatures in the northeast are warmer than general because of El Nino, a periodical weather phenomenon that results from water fluctuations in the Pacific Ocean.
‘‘In a moderate to strong El Nino pattern — and we’re right on the edge of a moderate to strong El Nino pattern — it puts us in a fairly snow-free environment,’’ Hibbert said. ‘‘Snow that falls doesn’t stay.’’
El Nino’s impact varies, according to meteorologists. In Western New York, a weak El Nino pattern only results in warmer temperatures in November and December, while temperatures in January, February and March are typically colder than normal. But a moderate El Nino pattern results in colder temperatures just in February, and a strong El Nino pattern results in warmer temperatures for the entire winter.
According to Hibbert, there is a chance of precipitation Christmas night, and nighttime temperatures are dropping enough that it might snow then — but it won’t come in time for a white Christmas.
The odds are usually against a brown Christmas in Western New York. Buffalo residents are facing their first Christmas without even a trace of snow on the ground in nine years, and only their ninth brown Christmas in half a century, according to NOAA data.
Most snowmobile trails were scheduled to open Dec. 15, but temperatures in the 40s and lower 50s that day — a full 17 degrees above normal — left snowmobilers out of luck. The same went for cross country skiers, but Hibbert said there is at least a little good news for them since unseasonably warm temperatures have stopped Lake Erie from freezing over, which could mean more snow in the long run.
‘‘We still have an opportunity. The flip side is, because it is milder, there is no ice on Lake Erie. So any incursions of cold air across the lake give us the potential for lake effect snow late in the winter,’’ Hibbert said.
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1 comment:
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