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Sunday, August 31, 2008

We Have to Talk

This year has been a difficult year for the nation in Real Estate.

All Real Estate is local what is happening in one market may or may not be happening in another market.

We have fielded countless calls this year from potential buyers wanting to know if the Chautauqua Lake Market has collapsed, is going to collapse, is over extended, over priced, forclosed on, you state the question we have heard it.

As the owner of this blog, partner in Real Estate Advantage and current President of the Chautauqua County Board of Realtors I'll clarify the current lake home market.

1) We never had the bubble we don't have the burst.

2) Forclosures are almost unheard of in the lake market. The only lake property forclosure I'm aware of was in May of 2007 3488 Mason St Hadley Bay Stow, NY MLS # 1014086 was sold by Wells Fargo. Listed for $189,000 sold for $177,000 which was what is was worth there was no deal and no steal.

3) The current market pricing is flat it was in 07 it will be in o8. Lake properties do not appreciate like a hockey stick they go up, level and then go up again. When the next round of appreciation starts and what percentage it will be is a crystal ball question. Keep in mind nobody is digging a whole and filling it water to create another lake. When the Indians discovered Chautauqua Lake land value was zero that only lasted about a week or so then they started selling. Ha Ha.

4) If you are following Chautauqua Lake Real Estate any price reductions you are seeing are normal they are generally homes that should have never been at there original price in the first place. This is perfectly normal. Sellers in this market don't have to sell anymore than you have to buy and they do frequently list a wish price even though their agent advises differently. Pricing is not a science there are many variables that determine a lakefronts value and there are no cookie cutter comparables. The primary reason the homes are sold is lack of use. Rarely is there a motivation that requires a sale. If you are a purchaser looking for that you will wait a long, long, long, long time. I've seen homes on the market for a couple of years at the same price and sell within 5-10% of list. You never know.

5) From 1/1/08 to 8/31/08 there have been 20 Lakefront closings on Chautauqua Lake. These are single family homes with lakefrontage. No condos, canals, lakerights etc. I'm using single family lakefronts only because they are the best barometer of the market and the rest of the market follows. The past four years single family lakefront home sales have average 47 units closed with the strongest closing period in the 3rd and 4th quarter. We are on track.

6) List to sale price has averaged 91% for 2008. That is an average we have had numerous sales with multiple offers that have sold for list or greater.

In summation if you are in a position to purchase a second home now is as good a time as ever. We invite your questions, comments, ideas and concerns. Julia and I and our fellow Realtors are here to help you make an informed decision.

Thank you,

Rick McMahon

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